Celia Gaertig is a behavioral marketing researcher who studies how consumers make judgment and decisions under uncertainty. Her research focuses on three main areas:
(1) Consumers' Reactions to Uncertainty
Several of Celia's projects focus on examining how consumers react to uncertainty. Her research challenges the assumption that people always prefer certainty — and explores when, why, and how uncertainty can actually improve persuasion and trust. Here are some of the key research questions she has investigated:
(2) Improving Estimates Under Uncertainty
Celia also explores how people make estimates under uncertainty, the biases that arise, and simple strategies for improving the accuracy of those estimates, including work on:
(3) Social Judgments of Forecasters and Advisors
Celia is also interested in understanding how people judge others based on the forecasts they make or the advice they provide in uncertain contexts. This includes research questions such as:
(1) Consumers' Reactions to Uncertainty
Several of Celia's projects focus on examining how consumers react to uncertainty. Her research challenges the assumption that people always prefer certainty — and explores when, why, and how uncertainty can actually improve persuasion and trust. Here are some of the key research questions she has investigated:
- Do people inherently dislike uncertain advice? (Gaertig & Simmons, 2018, Psychological Science)
- Are people more or less likely to follow advice that is accompanied by a confidence interval? (Gaertig & Simmons, 2023, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General)
- How should time estimates be structured to increase consumer satisfaction? (Hu, Gaertig, & Dietvorst, 2025, Management Science)
- When (and why) are uncertain price promotions effective? (Gaertig & Simmons, 2026, Journal of Consumer Research)
(2) Improving Estimates Under Uncertainty
Celia also explores how people make estimates under uncertainty, the biases that arise, and simple strategies for improving the accuracy of those estimates, including work on:
- Format effects in how people combine probability estimates: How do people combine multiple pieces of uncertain advice that contain numerical vs. verbal likelihood statements? (Mislavsky & Gaertig, 2022, Management Science)
- The wisdom of the "inner crowd": When and why can averaging multiple estimates from the same person improve judgments? (Gaertig & Simmons, 2022, Management Science).
- Anchoring: Can extremeness aversion cause people to insufficiently adjust from anchor values? (Lewis, Gaertig, & Simmons, 2019, Psychological Science).
(3) Social Judgments of Forecasters and Advisors
Celia is also interested in understanding how people judge others based on the forecasts they make or the advice they provide in uncertain contexts. This includes research questions such as:
- Do people prefer advisors who provide paternalistic advice over those who provide decisional autonomy? (Kassirer, Gaertig, & Levine, 2020, PNAS)
- Are forecasters perceived as more or less competent for making correct prediction far in advance of an event? (Mislavsky & Gaertig, 2024, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General)