My research explores the psychology of consumer judgment and decision-making, with an emphasis on understanding how consumers make judgments and decisions in situations that involve uncertainty.
How Does Uncertainty Affect Consumers' Judgments and Decisions?
Several of my projects focus on examining how uncertainty affects consumers’ judgments and decisions. Here are some of the research questions I have investigated:
Can Second Guesses Lead to Better Estimates?
In a related research stream, I investigate how people themselves make quantitative estimates. Recent research suggests that, when making quantitative judgments under uncertainty, averaging two estimates from the same person can improve judgments, an effect dubbed the “wisdom of the inner crowd.” It is not obvious, however, why or when this works. In our paper, we examine the conditions under which making a second guess leads to superior judgments (Gaertig & Simmons, 2022, Management Science).
How Do We Perceive Forecasters and Advisors?
I am also interested in understanding how people judge others based on the forecasts they make, the advice they provide, or the information they have about them. In this context, I have explored these research questions:
What Can Cause Anchoring?
In additional work, I have explored the phenomenon of anchoring. People’s estimates of uncertain quantities are influenced by values that they previously considered, a phenomenon known as anchoring. My collaborators and I demonstrate that extremeness aversion causes people to insufficiently adjust from anchor values (Lewis, Gaertig, & Simmons, 2019, Psychological Science).
How Does Uncertainty Affect Consumers' Judgments and Decisions?
Several of my projects focus on examining how uncertainty affects consumers’ judgments and decisions. Here are some of the research questions I have investigated:
- Do people inherently dislike uncertain advice? (Gaertig & Simmons, 2018, Psychological Science)
- Are people more or less likely to follow advice that is accompanied by a confidence interval? (Gaertig & Simmons, 2023, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General)
- How do people combine multiple pieces of uncertain advice that contain numerical vs. verbal likelihood statements? (Mislavsky & Gaertig, 2022, Management Science)
- How should time estimates be structured to increase consumer satisfaction? (Hu, Gaertig, & Dietvorst, forthcoming in Management Science)
- When (and why) are uncertain price promotions effective? (Gaertig & Simmons, under second-round review at JCR)
Can Second Guesses Lead to Better Estimates?
In a related research stream, I investigate how people themselves make quantitative estimates. Recent research suggests that, when making quantitative judgments under uncertainty, averaging two estimates from the same person can improve judgments, an effect dubbed the “wisdom of the inner crowd.” It is not obvious, however, why or when this works. In our paper, we examine the conditions under which making a second guess leads to superior judgments (Gaertig & Simmons, 2022, Management Science).
How Do We Perceive Forecasters and Advisors?
I am also interested in understanding how people judge others based on the forecasts they make, the advice they provide, or the information they have about them. In this context, I have explored these research questions:
- Are forecasters perceived as more or less competent for making correct prediction far in advance of an event? (Mislavsky & Gaertig, 2024, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General)
- Do people prefer advisors who provide paternalistic advice over those who provide decisional autonomy? (Kassirer, Gaertig, & Levine, 2020, PNAS)
- How does the magnitude of an anger expression influence perceptions of competence and status conferral decisions? (Gaertig, Barasch, Levine, & Schweitzer, 2019, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology)
What Can Cause Anchoring?
In additional work, I have explored the phenomenon of anchoring. People’s estimates of uncertain quantities are influenced by values that they previously considered, a phenomenon known as anchoring. My collaborators and I demonstrate that extremeness aversion causes people to insufficiently adjust from anchor values (Lewis, Gaertig, & Simmons, 2019, Psychological Science).